PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 7 (J P SHARMA)

Presently we are going to do an interesting portfolio analysis of Mr J P Sharma where the choice of companies is rather fascinating. There is immense scope in this portfolio for impressive gains over the next one year. Shall we begin then?

Unitech
Holding 500 shares at an average price of Rs 83. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 109
6 mnth tgt- 160, 1yr tgt- 200
Since you are sitting on profit and market correction is expected soon, you may like to sell 50% of your holding at about 120 and release your capital. After the correction you may like to pick up Unitech at 75/80 level. Then hold your position for one year's target of 200.

Suzlon
Holding 500 shares at an average price of Rs 96. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 94.6
6 mnth tgt- 180, 1yr tgt- 320
Suzlon should be bought at every dip. So be ready to add to your holding in small packets till level of 80. Such accumulation in the scrip will pay you handsome dividends in one year. Sell your complete position once the scrip reaches the price target of Rs 320.

DLF
Holding 90 shares at an average price of Rs 343. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 423.6
6 mnth tgt- 700, 1yr tgt- 900
DLF may correct till 300 and may on extreme conditions go down as much as 250. You can keep a stop loss of 385 and keep holding your position. You may then re-enter the scrip at 300 for the price target of 900 in one year or so.

Bhartiartl
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 612. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 413.5
6 mnth tgt- 550, 1yr tgt- 750
Hold your position in this scrip and plan to add to your position during the correction. Fall below 390 can take the scrip to 340/350. Buy 50 additional shares at 350. Hold the scrip for one year's target of 750.

Mundra Port
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 610. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 537.5
6 mnth tgt- 800, 1yr tgt- 1100
Mundra port can slide down to 400 if it closes below 520. Double your holding if the scrip touches 400. Hold your position for one year's target of 1100.

RNRL
Holding 200 shares at an average price of Rs 140. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 88.15
6 mnth tgt- 145, 1yr tgt- 190, 2 yr tgt- 250
RNRL can correct to 70 once it closes below 83. Keep accumulating the scrip from 70 downwards till 60. Hold your position till one year's target of 190.

Alok Industries
Holding 1000 shares at an average price of Rs 22.45. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 22.7
6 mnth tgt- 33, 1yr tgt- 42
Alok Industries can fall to 15 level but you should keep holding your position. You should start accumulating at dips right from 19 till 15. You can then sell your positions comfortably at one year's target of 42.

SBI
Holding 60 shares at an average price of Rs 343. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 2142
6 mnth tgt- 2300, 1yr tgt- 3200
You have SBI at IPO price so just keep holding it till its one year target of 3200.

GMR Infra
Holding 100 shares at an average price of Rs 143. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 140.7
6 mnth tgt- 200, 1yr tgt- 260
GMR Infra may correct to 110. You may start building up your position from 110 downwards. Hold the scrip for one year's target of 260.

RPL
Holding 160 shares at an average price of Rs 146. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 130.4
6 mnth tgt- 200, 1yr tgt- 235, 2 yr tgt 290
RPL can move down to 110 during the coming market correction. But you should only think of adding to your present position. Sell only when the scrip touches 290.

NTPC
Holding 260 shares at an average price of Rs 198. Closing price on 23 Sep 09 was 208.8
1yr tgt- 300
NTPC looks quite dicey below 200. You have a choice to move out of this scrip at current market price and re-enter at 170. It may go down to even 150 level, but over one year it will surely touch 300.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 6 (KOTHIWALA)

Continuing with our series of portfolio analysis , now we have portfolio of Mr Kothiwala. He has converted most of his portfolio into cash and wisely so. We have to learn to take profit home, otherwise there is no point in investing our time and money in the stock market. But my only piece of advice to Mr Kothiwala would be to start assessing the different sectors and good companies therein, so that he can re-enter the market after the expected correction. Be that as it may, let us now begin to analyse the portfolio or what remains of it!

GVK Power
Holding 2700 shares at an average price of Rs 46. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 46.6
6 mnth tgt- 65, 1 yr tgt- 100
You may consider exiting from 50 % of total holding of the scrip at current market price. This will be on a no-profit-no-loss basis, and will give you the capital to re-enter at lower level. This is because GVK power may test 27/30 level in the coming correction. Buy back your shares at 30 and hold for one year's target of 100. Exit complete position once target is achieved.

JP Associate
Holding 500 shares at an average price of Rs 220. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 249.8
6 mnth tgt- 390, 1 yr tgt- 500
JP Associate can correct to 170 level. If that happens then pick up 500 additional shares at around 170 and hold your total position of 1000 shares. Sell your complete position at the target price of 500.

Suzlon
Holding 200 shares at an average price of Rs 90. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 100.8
6 mnth tgt- 180, 1 yr tgt- 320
Suzlon is a bright candidate to be in any portfolio for the next one year. Hold the scrip and keep adding to your position in small tranches at every dip till 80. Accumulate at least 1000 shares in your portfolio for next one year. Exit your complete position at target price of 320.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 5 (DILRAJ SINGH)

Today we will analyse portfolio of one Mr Dilraj Singh who is new to the stock market. It will be my endeavour to suggest the best possible way to maximise profit for Mr Dilraj. Hopefully in a year's time Mr Dilraj would have become a strong investor in the stock market. Here we go!

IFCI
Holding 220 shares at an average price of Rs 53. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was Rs 57.65
1 mnth tgt- 65, 6 mnth tgt- 85, 1 yr tgt 115
You should book your profit once at 65 if IFCI runs up in next few trading sessions. If not, then try and buy 220 more shares at 45 level. Exit your complete position at the target of 115.

Suzlon
Holding 120 shares at an average price of Rs 100. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was Rs 100.8
6 mnth tgt- 180, 1 yr tgt- 320
Suzlon is a very good buy to keep in your portfolio for long term. Keep adding to your position at every dip till 80. After that hold for one year to reap extraordinary profit.

PTC
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 83. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 88.35
6 mnth tgt - 160, 1 yr tgt - 200
PTC may fall down to 70/75 during the coming correction phase of market. That shouldn't worry you because then you will have an opportunity to pick up more shares of PTC. Sell your position only at the target of 200.

Power Grid
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 117. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 108.
6 mnth tgt- 160, 1 yr tgt 215, 2 yr tgt - 260
Power Grid can correct right down to 80 level. Keep adding to your position from 90 onwards till 80. Sell your complete position at 215.

RNRL
Holding 30 shares at an average price of Rs 76. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 90.65
6 mnth tgt- 145, 1 yr tgt- 190, 2 yr tgt 250
RNRL may correct to 70/75. You should keep an eye on it so that you may pick up more of this scrip at 75. Sell the scrip at its 1 year target of Rs 190.

GVK Power
Holding 50 shares at an average price of Rs 49. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 46.6
6 mnth tgt- 65, 1 yr tgt- 100
GVK Power is very weak if it trades below 44, since the chances are that the scrip may fall down to 27/30 level. Keep a strict mental stop loss of 44 and exit your position, thereby taking a loss of Rs 5 per share. Then pick up the scrip at 30 and hold for 1 year's target of 100.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 4 ( S S HUSSAIN )

Here in this portfolio analysis we have a case of Mr Hussain who wants a three year horizon for his portfolio. However my recommendation to him will be to watch for one year targets and take profit there. After that he will have plenty of opportunity to pick up the shares again at a lower price since those targets are at supply zones. Lets begin the exercise.

DLF
Holding134 shares at an average price of Rs 358. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 430.1
6 mnth tgt- 700, 1 yr tgt- 900
You should keep holding the share for a target of 900. It may also trade at 1200 around two years down the line.

GMR Infra
Holding 287 shares at an average price of 76. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 142.8
6 mnth tgt- 200, 1yr tgt 260
You have a profitable position to hold. At the most GMR may come down to 110 in near future expected correction. Hold till target of 260 is achieved.

BPL
Holding1000 shares at an average price of Rs 24.15. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 36.85
6 mnth tgt- 45, 1 yr tgt- 65
Currently BPL may come down to the zone of 25 to 30. Since you will not be in any loss, therefore keep holding till target of 65.

BHEL
Holding 14 shares at an average price of Rs 1504. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was Rs 2285.
6 mnth tgt- 2800, 1 yr tgt- 3900.
BHEL may come down to 1700 level in the foreseeable correction. It will be very weak if it closes below 2200. However you do not have to worry since your position will not give you any loss even if the correction does take place. Hence keep on holding it till 1 year's target of 3900.

GSPL
Holding 590 shares at an average price of Rs 59. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was Rs 79.4
6 mnth tgt- 95, 1 yr tgt- 110
GSPL may correct to 50 level in near term. You may like to add to your position if it does come down to 50. What ever be the case, exit position only at 1 year's target of 110.

Rcom
Holding 90 shares at an average price of Rs 359. Closing price on 22 Sep 09 was 307.5
6 mnth tgt- 500, 1 yr tgt- 600, 2 yr tgt- 810
Rcom may come down to 250 level if the markets correct now, of which there is high probability. You can plan to add to your position at 260 and off load your complete position at two year's target of 810.

Survival Kit For Newbie Investors - Mind Game

Last post was dedicated to Laws of Nature (http://archana-archdeb.blogspot.com/2009/09/starter-kit-for-newbie-investor-greed.html). Last in this series we will now analyse Mind Game. You may think I am kidding, but stock investing is basically a mind game. It tests your character and strength of your mental fabric. If you have any doubt then as you read on you will realize the veracity of my statement. For the time being, simply promise yourself to follow the rules which govern your thinking while investing.

• Rule # 1. Do not change your mind after placing the stop loss order. Many traders who had wisely put a stop loss order, cancelled the same once they saw that the market is going against them. Some shift the stop loss level to try and give time for market to move in the desired direction. This is a seriously flawed behaviour and may result in great losses. It is seen that 90% of the time a trader will be a winner if he maintains the original stop loss level and refrains from cancelling it. When you cancel a stop loss order you are merely hoping against hopes that market will reverse its direction and move in the direction of your trade. This can have a disastrous outcome.
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• Rule # 2. Be firm in your mind while initiating a trade. You must decide to enter a trade after having given due thought to it. It must be done after you are fully satisfied, having done adequate research/consultation. How can you buy stocks when you don't buy vegetables without making elaborate enquiries about the right price!! But once you have arrived at an informed decision then be firm in your thinking and do not change your mind or cancel the trade without adequate reasons.
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• Rule # 3. Should the market reverse direction never let a profit run into a loss of capital. This can be done by raising the stop loss level progressively. This system of progressively increasing the stop loss level will ensure that you roll your profits and cut losses. But the basic mistake that traders have been doing since time immemorial is that they cut their profits short out of fear, and roll their losses on the hope that the market will move in the desired direction. This is a serious mistake and should be avoided at all cost. Be resolute in your mind and use your stop loss orders effectively, and progressively increase them to stay with the trend, till the stop loss order is triggered.