PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 8 (Jalal Basha)

Here we have a very unique portfolio of Mr Jalal Basha which comprises of some rare gems and is also well diversified. I hope it will serve some of you to select a few scrips from the portfolio to add to your own. Lets begin the analysis then.

3iinfotech
Holding 250 shares @ Rs 88.5. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 83.25

6 mnth tgt- 135, 1 yr tgt- 172

You should plan to exit the scrip with no profit no loss. You should re- enter the scrip at 70 and keep accumulating till level of 60.

Alembic Ltd

Holding 250 shares @ Rs 49 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 52.3

6 mnth tgt- 72, 1 yr tgt- 100

Alembic can run up to 65 so keep holding till at least 62. Exit there and be ready to pick up the scrip again between 45 and 50. You can than look forward to sell your holdings at one year's target of 100.

Apollo Tyres

Holding 100 shares @ Rs 39.5 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 46.2

6 mnth tgt- 55, 1 yr tgt- 85

Book your profit in Apollo Tyres at current market price. Wait for correction and buy it again at 30 level for 1 year's target.

Crompton Greaves

Holding 15 shares @ Rs 300. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 311.7

6 mnth tgt- 440, 1 yr tgt- 560

Play safe and exit your position from Crompton Greaves at current market price. Close below 300 will be disastrous for the scrip. It can find support at 260 level but at that point if market shows consistent weakness it may even revisit 180 level. So its better not to take any chance since you are still not in loss by exiting at CMP. You can start buying from 220 till 180 and then hold the scrip for one year's target of 560.

Ess Dee Aluminium

Holding 60 shares @ Rs 359 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 352.8

6 mnth tgt-550 , 1 yr tgt- 700

Ess Dee Aluminium can touch 385 in current run-up or even higher. But on the flip side it may even drop down to 250 during market correction. But if you are not hard pressed for capital then you can cling on to it for one year's target of 700.

Exide Industries

Holding 100 shares @ Rs 88.5 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 89.9

1 yr tgt- 160

You should consider off loading this scrip at current market price. You may like to pick it up again at level of 65 for its one year target of 160.

KSK Energy Ventures

Holding 100 shares @ Rs 210. Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 203.4

Frankly speaking there can be explosive move either way in this stock. Below 195 it can tumble to a zone between 110 to 140. Above 210 it can race to 280. Since the probability to move southwards is more, exiting the stock at CMP will be more prudent play.

Mahindra Lifespace

Holding 50 shares @ Rs 373 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 385.1

6 mnth tgt- 500, 1 yr tgt- 650, 2 yr tgt- 900

Mahindra Lifespace can move up to 400 but you may be better off to exit the scrip while still in green. You will then have the option to re- enter at 225/250.

Nava Bharat Venture

Holding 15 shares @ Rs 433 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 380.7

1 yr tgt- 850

Though Nava Bharat Venture can correct a great deal, but in my opinion you should keep holding the scrip and plan to double your holding at 260/280. Then you can profitably exit your complete position at one year's target of 850.

NHPC

Holding 785 shares @ Rs 36 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 34.6

1 yr tgt- 42

NHPC can fall down to 22. Keep accumulating from the level of 30 right up to 22. By averaging so you can plan to exit from the scrip in one year's time with a decent profit.

Noida Toll

Holding 300 shares @ Rs 44.3 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 41.9

6 mnth tgt- 60, 1 yr tgt- 85

Noida Toll should correct from here up to 32. Double your position at around 32 level and hold for one year til the target of 85 is achieved.

Praj Industries

Holding 150 shares @ Rs 107 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 102.1

1 yr tgt- 180

Praj Industries can witness serious selling below 96 which may take it all the way down to the zone between 60 and 70. Plan to accumulate the scrip at that level and book profit at its one year target of 180, which may even stretch up to 200.

Tinplate

Holding 200 shares @ Rs 69 . Closing price on 29 Sep 09 was 55.25

1 yr tgt- 145

Keep picking up the scrip from 50 right up to 45 , and just in case it falls further down to 40 do add some more to your portfolio. You can then plan to sell your complete holding at one year's target of 145.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 3 ( X-2 )

The second tranche of Mr X's portfolio is here. This packet may compel some to take a deep look at few IT companies and derive an outlook for IT sector as a whole. Take a peep!

INFOSYSTCH
Holding 20 shares @ 2118, CMP -2165
In this run up Infosys has not corrected to the extent that it should have. Therefore in near future there is a distinct possibility of Infosys correcting to a level of 1700 or so. Such correction is essential for the scrip to attain stability for its long term growth trajectory. You may consider emptying your kitty of Infosys at level of 2300 or thereabouts. After that wait for a major correction in the scrip to re-enter and hold it for 1 yr's tgt of 3300.

SATYAM
Holding 100 shares @ 425, CMP - 120.8
1 mnth tgt 145; 6 mnth tgt- 185; 1 yr tgt- 320
Buy 200 shares of Satyam at current level and hold for 1 year target of 320. In this fashion you would be able to exit your position with profit since you would have averaged the scrip to a buy price of 220. To further bring down your buy price you may toy with the idea of trading additional 300 shares at target levels indicated above.

HCL TECH
Holding 200 shares @ 250, CMP - 309.1
You are sitting on profit in a scrip which hasn't corrected yet. In fact the whole IT pack has yet to correct its rise. Hence I am of the opinion that you should liquidate your position in HCL tech at 310 and wait for a major correction before re-entering. Level of 200 will be a decent correction level to buy. After buying the correction you should hold the scrip for one year's target of 450.

3IINFOTECH
Holding 600 shares @ 188, CMP - 84.35
1 mnth tgt - 114, 6 mnth tgt- 135, 1 yr tgt - 172
Buy 600 additional shares of 3iinfotech so that your average Buy Price drops down to 118. Then you can exit all your positions at 6 month's target and trade subsequent corrections; or simply wait for 1 year's target of 172 for off-loading 3iinfotech.

MASTEK
Holding 100 shares @ 327, CMP -311.9
6 mnth tgt - 400, 1 yr tgt- 460
Mastek may correct to 260 in near term. In case you get a chance in coming trading sessions to exit your positions at 335 then it would be quite comfortable. If not, then wait for 6 month's target to take home some honourable profit.

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS - SAMPLE 1(ABHINAV)

The reason why I have undertaken this particular exercise of Portfolio Analysis is simple. Here is the time to take hard look at your portfolio, if you have one. I am going to give answers to some investors who have been enquiring as to what to do with the present holdings in their portfolio. To start with this exercise let me take up the portfolio of one Mr Abhinav, who wants one year's view of his portfolio. His portfolio holding reads like this:-
3iinfotech
Holding 500 shares at average price of 75. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 88.6.
Resistance - 94.
1 mnth tgt - 114
6 mnth tgt - 135
1 yr tgt - 172
3iinfotech is in 2nd phase of Bull run and the correction for 1st phase of Bull run has already happened upto 50%. Hence it is an eligible candidate for hold. It needs to be accumulated at every serious dip till it reaches its 1 yr target.
Arvind
Holding 500 shares at an average price of 22.5. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 31.9.
Resistance - 35
1 mnth tgt - 41
6 mnth tgt - 52
1 yr tgt - 62
Arvind Mills has completed its 50% correction of 1st phase of Bull run and presently in 2nd phase of Bull run. It can be accumulated at every dip for its 1yr target of 62. Presently a strong contender for hold.
Dish TV
Holding 250 shares at average price of 38. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 48.65.
Resistance - 57.
1 mnth tgt - 65
6 mnth tgt - 75
1yr tgt - 103
Dish TV looks pretty to be held through its journey in 2nd phase of Bull run since the scrip has completed 50% retracement of its 1st leg of Bull run. Hold and accumulate in major dips till its 1 yr target of 103.
Mirc Electr
Holding 2000 shares at average price of 16. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 19.45.
1 mnth tgt - 23.5
6 mnth tgt - 26
1 yr tgt - 28
Mirc Electronics has completed 50% correction of its 1st phase of Bull run and is sailing in 2nd phase of Bull run. Hold this scrip till it achieves its 1 mnth's target of 23.5. After that wait for major correction and again pick it up at around 18 for its 1 yr target of 28
Suzlon
Holding 350 shares at average price of 110. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 93.6.
1 mnth tgt - 139
6 mnth tgt - 180
1 yr tgt - 255
Suzlon has also completed 50% retracement of 1st leg of Bull run and is well poised for substantive jump in its 2nd leg of Bull run. Hold for impressive returns. One can accumulate more at current level also for 1 yr target of 255.
Satyam
Holding 800 shares at average price of 136. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 110.2.
1 mnth tgt - 145
6 mnth tgt - 185
1 yr tgt - 320
Satyam needs to be held till 145 at least, but this has to be again picked up at regular corrections till it achieves its 1 yr target of 320.
GMR Infra
Holding 100 shares at average price of 136. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 142.9.
1 mnth tgt - 170
6 mnth tgt - 200
1 yr tgt - 260
GMR Infra can be liquidated initially at 170 and again bought at 150 for its 1 yr target of 260.
Ind Hotel
Holding 150 shares at average price of 60. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 65.75.
Resistance - 80
1 mnth tgt - 90
6 mnth tgt - 120
1 yr tgt - 132
Hold Ind Hotel for its 6 month's target of 120.
Zee News
Holding 400 shares at average price of 43. Closing price on 26 Aug 09 was 44.35.
Resistance - 50
1 mnth tgt - 62
6mnth tgt - 75
1 yr tgt - 95
Hold Zee News for its 1 month's target of 62. Keep accumulating at major dips for its 1 yr target of 95.